WEBVTT 00:00:11.092 --> 00:00:15.972 Hello, friends, and welcome back to your weekly Linux talk show. My name is Chris. 00:00:16.112 --> 00:00:16.812 My name is Wes. 00:00:16.992 --> 00:00:17.692 And my name is Brent. 00:00:18.312 --> 00:00:24.072 Hello, gentlemen, and joining us as referee this week, it's our friendly editor, Drew. Hello, Drew. 00:00:24.372 --> 00:00:25.932 Welcome to the Thunderdome. 00:00:26.952 --> 00:00:27.712 Uh-oh. 00:00:27.972 --> 00:00:30.892 That's a little indication of how it's going to go today. Today, 00:00:30.892 --> 00:00:35.092 we are owning up to our 2025 predictions. We'll see how we did. 00:00:35.292 --> 00:00:39.032 And then we're going to make bold and powerful 2026 predictions. 00:00:39.432 --> 00:00:42.492 So don't miss that. Then we're going to round out the show with some really 00:00:42.492 --> 00:00:44.652 great booze, some pics, and a lot more. 00:00:44.872 --> 00:00:47.932 This is where I'd say hello, Mumble Room, but shout out to those of you that 00:00:47.932 --> 00:00:49.412 are up there in the quiet listening right now. 00:00:49.832 --> 00:00:51.872 Look at them. Look at them. 00:00:52.052 --> 00:00:53.572 Listening so quietly. 00:00:53.752 --> 00:00:55.932 So quietly. If only my kids could be that quiet. 00:00:55.932 --> 00:00:56.552 I don't hear them. 00:00:57.072 --> 00:00:59.972 I know. Because they're in there quiet listening. Hello to all of you that join 00:00:59.972 --> 00:01:03.972 us in that live Mumble Room. Going every single Sunday that we do this here show. 00:01:05.378 --> 00:01:08.878 And a big good morning to our friends at Defined Networking. 00:01:09.538 --> 00:01:13.998 Defined.net slash unplugged. Go check out Managed Nebula. 00:01:14.358 --> 00:01:18.498 This is what you want to build on. It's a decentralized VPN that is built on 00:01:18.498 --> 00:01:21.598 top of the open source Nebula project that we already trust and love. 00:01:21.698 --> 00:01:23.218 It's out there. It's fully open source. 00:01:23.938 --> 00:01:27.618 But here's the real difference with Nebula. There isn't a free tier that exists 00:01:27.618 --> 00:01:31.858 to funnel you into some sort of VC-funded SaaS roadmap that's being developed. 00:01:32.238 --> 00:01:35.618 Right? So when a networking tool reaches a certain venture scale, 00:01:35.738 --> 00:01:39.318 let's call it, the business eventually competes with the free product, 00:01:39.878 --> 00:01:42.858 especially if there's a free tier. We all have seen the way this goes. 00:01:43.798 --> 00:01:47.718 We've seen the way this goes. With Nebula, you own the network. 00:01:47.918 --> 00:01:52.098 You own identity, routing, and the control stays with you. 00:01:52.678 --> 00:01:57.578 Not a third-party control plane that you don't control. You control everything. 00:01:57.698 --> 00:02:01.358 And Nebula's decentralized design means that no single point of failure is going 00:02:01.358 --> 00:02:04.818 to impact you. And the optional self-hosted Lighthouse nodes means that you 00:02:04.818 --> 00:02:06.938 keep discovery in your hands. 00:02:07.558 --> 00:02:09.378 That's so sweet. It's how you 00:02:09.378 --> 00:02:12.978 want to build when you're building your home infra or your business infra. 00:02:13.518 --> 00:02:16.038 Nebula was originally built to connect Slack's global infrastructure. 00:02:16.038 --> 00:02:20.858 So it was designed from the beginning to scale and perform so it can work for 00:02:20.858 --> 00:02:23.478 your lab and it can work for your global corporation. 00:02:23.718 --> 00:02:28.578 Go get 100 hosts for free right now. Support the show. No credit card required. No lock-in. 00:02:28.798 --> 00:02:33.838 Go to defined.net slash unplugged. That's define.net slash unplugged. 00:02:34.218 --> 00:02:38.138 Go support the show and check out Managed Nebula. 00:02:38.838 --> 00:02:43.318 Now, gentlemen, we have a little bit of housekeeping to get into before we start with predictions. 00:02:45.658 --> 00:02:49.598 It's that time of year again. If you can believe it, the call for papers for 00:02:49.598 --> 00:02:53.438 LinuxFest Northwest 2026 ends in just a couple of days. 00:02:54.178 --> 00:02:55.898 December 31st, 2025. 00:02:56.838 --> 00:02:58.218 You going to get a talk in, Wes? 00:02:58.418 --> 00:03:00.398 Oh, boy. Well, I better go quick. 00:03:01.078 --> 00:03:04.978 I swear, like, years are getting shorter or something. It feels like we just did this. 00:03:05.078 --> 00:03:09.358 I know, right? I know. It's crazy. LinuxFest Northwest is back in April, 00:03:09.518 --> 00:03:14.578 the 24th to the 26th, 2026 at Bellingham Technical College. and I believe that 00:03:14.578 --> 00:03:17.018 big area is going to be back available to us again. 00:03:17.258 --> 00:03:17.778 Oh, nice. 00:03:18.618 --> 00:03:19.058 Yeah. 00:03:19.758 --> 00:03:21.198 It was a great time last year. 00:03:21.358 --> 00:03:25.398 It was nice. If you can believe it, that's only 117 days away, 00:03:25.938 --> 00:03:28.498 which means if you include holidays in this, except for U.S. 00:03:28.578 --> 00:03:32.958 federal holidays, that's 82 business days away, which makes it 16 Linux unplugs 00:03:32.958 --> 00:03:36.998 away, which means Brent needs to be on the road by episode 660. 00:03:38.338 --> 00:03:41.738 I really appreciate how you give me the heads up because I need it. 00:03:41.738 --> 00:03:45.558 Oh, boost in your bet by which episode he actually hits the road. 00:03:45.818 --> 00:03:47.138 And which route should I take? 00:03:47.458 --> 00:03:51.498 You better. Also, if you want to catch up on how the van, or a.k.a. 00:03:51.538 --> 00:03:56.698 the bang bus, is doing, Brent stopped by the launch episode 46 at weeklylaunch.rocks. 00:03:57.278 --> 00:04:03.278 Nature chose violence, and Brent tells quite the tale, which I appreciated. 00:04:03.538 --> 00:04:07.398 Also, I talk a little bit about the flooding that hit the Pacific Northwest. 00:04:08.018 --> 00:04:09.318 You've been a local weatherman. 00:04:09.598 --> 00:04:13.418 It was quite the thing, Wes. I became an island is what happened. 00:04:13.538 --> 00:04:14.718 I became an island for real. 00:04:15.598 --> 00:04:19.158 So that is weeklylaunch.rocks and episode 46 for that. 00:04:19.278 --> 00:04:25.118 And we'll have a link to the LinuxFest Northwest 2026 call for speakers if that interests you. 00:04:27.506 --> 00:04:33.446 All right, gentlemen, it is time for predictions past. Before we get into how 2026 is going to go. 00:04:33.746 --> 00:04:35.146 You're making us make good on it. 00:04:35.366 --> 00:04:37.466 We got to see how we did for 2025. 00:04:38.286 --> 00:04:41.926 Did anyone else completely forget their predictions from last year? 00:04:42.406 --> 00:04:42.886 Yes. 00:04:43.186 --> 00:04:48.206 I only remembered one of mine and the others. I feel like it wasn't even me 00:04:48.206 --> 00:04:50.706 who wrote those or committed to those. But there's evidence, right, somewhere? 00:04:50.946 --> 00:04:55.006 There is evidence. In fact, we have audio on tape. 00:04:55.186 --> 00:04:59.086 So let's start with Brent's first prediction. For 2025. 00:04:59.786 --> 00:05:05.726 I believe in 2025, we will see a commercially available machine be released 00:05:05.726 --> 00:05:09.486 using RISC-V from major vendors. 00:05:12.117 --> 00:05:17.917 That's not my best prediction sentence, got to say. Machine is not very good. 00:05:18.337 --> 00:05:19.777 Yeah, Drew, you should have caught me on that. 00:05:20.737 --> 00:05:24.597 Well, I wasn't judging last year, so that's not on me. 00:05:24.977 --> 00:05:27.977 Well, we needed you. I'm nervous about this one. 00:05:28.137 --> 00:05:32.197 For those that are new to the show, Drew is here to play referee to make sure 00:05:32.197 --> 00:05:36.517 that we have good, solid predictions that should be measurable by the next year. 00:05:36.877 --> 00:05:40.357 And so this is a tricky one, ref. I think we might have to start with right away. 00:05:41.637 --> 00:05:46.157 I think you could call this technically true in the sense that Meta, 00:05:46.317 --> 00:05:52.457 in March of 2025, started deploying their custom AI and training inference chips 00:05:52.457 --> 00:05:54.417 built around RISC-V in their data center. 00:05:54.877 --> 00:06:02.457 And in late 2025, the Coral MPU officially released the Coral MPU from Google that is RISC-V based. 00:06:02.457 --> 00:06:06.457 I guess you could kind of consider that. But there's a few other like large 00:06:06.457 --> 00:06:11.537 data center implementations of RISC-V this year that didn't exist in 2024. 00:06:12.237 --> 00:06:15.137 So I asked the AI bot, and I want to hear what you think about this, Drew. 00:06:15.137 --> 00:06:20.257 The AI bot says that the prediction correctly identified an inflection point 00:06:20.257 --> 00:06:26.017 as of late December 2025, RISC-V has reached an estimated 25% market penetration 00:06:26.017 --> 00:06:27.917 in the semiconductor industry, 00:06:28.317 --> 00:06:34.757 largely due to major vendors abandoning expensive ARM licenses in favor of custom RISC-V silicon. 00:06:35.097 --> 00:06:39.417 So when Brent said a commercially available machine using RISC-V from a major 00:06:39.417 --> 00:06:43.317 vendor will be released, what do you think, Ref? Did he get it right? 00:06:43.317 --> 00:06:46.017 So here's the tricky part, custom. 00:06:47.475 --> 00:06:52.775 All right. So these guys are making their own risk five boards. 00:06:52.955 --> 00:06:55.095 Is that correct? Or are they selling them? 00:06:55.995 --> 00:06:57.035 Mm hmm. 00:06:57.875 --> 00:07:02.415 I believe you do have them on a technicality there. I think they may be at least 00:07:02.415 --> 00:07:03.975 having them manufactured on their behalf. 00:07:04.275 --> 00:07:12.815 Yeah. So for it to be commercially available, it needs to be sold from one company to another. 00:07:13.155 --> 00:07:15.335 That can't be an in-house product. 00:07:16.015 --> 00:07:19.635 Mm hmm. I think that's fair. It's not commercially available. 00:07:19.755 --> 00:07:20.995 It's privately available. 00:07:21.215 --> 00:07:26.795 So yeah, if you can tell me a company that is commercially producing these and 00:07:26.795 --> 00:07:30.775 selling them, it's a win. If you can't, it's a loss. 00:07:31.035 --> 00:07:36.015 I think this was a failure in describing my prediction, I will say. 00:07:36.175 --> 00:07:45.235 So I remember the sort of intention for this prediction was specifically around desktop computers. 00:07:45.235 --> 00:07:50.595 So when I use the word machine in saying a commercially available machine, 00:07:50.595 --> 00:07:58.615 I should have said a commercially available like desktop or tablet or single. Exactly. 00:07:58.855 --> 00:08:02.835 So I was thinking more available for the consumer market. 00:08:03.395 --> 00:08:04.155 Okay. 00:08:04.655 --> 00:08:11.195 So if we take it from that perspective, I do recall that the framework did make 00:08:11.195 --> 00:08:13.015 available a RISC-V board. 00:08:14.258 --> 00:08:18.238 but I think I'm going to fail myself on that from a technicality unless anyone 00:08:18.238 --> 00:08:23.258 else can help me win this one because that was announced February 4th, 00:08:23.338 --> 00:08:27.338 and our episode was February 5th, so I feel like it's not fair to make a prediction 00:08:27.338 --> 00:08:28.458 that happened the day before. 00:08:30.058 --> 00:08:31.678 Oh, you didn't have to out yourself. 00:08:32.458 --> 00:08:34.018 I'm the honest one here. 00:08:35.798 --> 00:08:37.698 So it was announced. 00:08:37.778 --> 00:08:40.978 Yeah, the day before the episode. He didn't know about it, but it was technically 00:08:40.978 --> 00:08:43.538 public information the day before the episode. 00:08:46.658 --> 00:08:50.018 At least for my limited research, which is, yeah, that's not fair. 00:08:50.955 --> 00:08:53.415 You know, I'd say, are we doing half points? 00:08:54.095 --> 00:08:54.475 Wow. 00:08:54.855 --> 00:08:58.175 I could get behind half points. If Wes doesn't object, I could get behind a 00:08:58.175 --> 00:09:01.255 half point. We could do that, like a .5. 00:09:01.475 --> 00:09:04.595 Okay, yeah. All right, we'll be generous this year. It is the holidays. 00:09:04.675 --> 00:09:05.295 It is the holidays. 00:09:05.515 --> 00:09:05.815 That was unbelievable. 00:09:06.155 --> 00:09:06.935 Half a point. 00:09:07.235 --> 00:09:09.715 And there was definitely an uptick in the deployment of RISC-V. 00:09:09.895 --> 00:09:10.195 Mm-hmm. 00:09:10.995 --> 00:09:15.975 Fair. Fair. Okay. All right. Well, Brantley, you win on a technicality. Congratulations. 00:09:16.235 --> 00:09:16.915 What are we doing? 00:09:17.255 --> 00:09:17.555 Wow. 00:09:17.855 --> 00:09:21.795 All right. I'm going to keep this. I'm going to keep track here. I'll keep track. 00:09:22.535 --> 00:09:26.095 All right. So, Brentley, you had a second prediction for us. 00:09:26.475 --> 00:09:31.035 You said in 2025, this was definitely going to happen. 00:09:31.295 --> 00:09:36.575 In 2025, the Ubuntu core desktop will be found as either a download on ubuntu.com 00:09:36.575 --> 00:09:39.795 slash download or as an Ubuntu flavor. 00:09:40.275 --> 00:09:44.735 I, this was like half prediction, half hope. 00:09:45.335 --> 00:09:51.175 I was really hoping this was going to happen for Ubuntu's future generally. 00:09:51.535 --> 00:09:54.475 I don't know if our wish casting generally works or does it? 00:09:54.655 --> 00:09:55.715 It does not seem to work. 00:09:55.855 --> 00:10:00.855 I know. That's where I trip up on my predictions is I just put in my own desires 00:10:00.855 --> 00:10:03.155 in there. And sometimes they happen and most of the time they don't. 00:10:03.595 --> 00:10:08.195 Here's the deal, ref. I looked it up. No, it is not downloadable on Ubuntu.com. 00:10:08.815 --> 00:10:12.235 The traditional Ubuntu desktop release is shipped as scheduled, 00:10:12.235 --> 00:10:16.575 but the ubuntu desktop that is the ubuntu core version and immutable snap only 00:10:16.575 --> 00:10:21.135 version of the os did not graduate to a standard download option and is still 00:10:21.135 --> 00:10:28.175 very much under development so i think that one's kind of a clear yeah loser yeah sorry brently no. 00:10:28.175 --> 00:10:30.295 It's fine i also have to add that, 00:10:31.397 --> 00:10:38.097 Given zero action last year, it felt like, on this, a micro prediction is that 00:10:38.097 --> 00:10:39.977 this year doesn't feel so good for this either. 00:10:40.097 --> 00:10:40.357 Does it? 00:10:44.117 --> 00:10:49.197 Okay, so zero points for that one. But let's see what your next one was, 00:10:49.217 --> 00:10:53.657 because maybe you had a vision for this next one. I was very impressed. 00:10:53.657 --> 00:11:02.337 In 2025, we will see a tech YouTuber of over a million subscribers do a iSwitched-style 00:11:02.337 --> 00:11:07.417 video for Linux, using it as their main desktop OS for a period of time. 00:11:08.137 --> 00:11:11.897 Wow, did you nail that one. So, yeah. 00:11:12.097 --> 00:11:16.737 On April 26, 2025, PewDiePie, I installed Linux, and so should you. 00:11:17.257 --> 00:11:23.677 PewDiePie has 110 million subscribers, and as of this AM, the video has seen 00:11:23.677 --> 00:11:30.337 7.3 million views, and it's the third most popular Linux video on YouTube. 00:11:31.397 --> 00:11:35.837 Yeah. It took a couple months, but that was an early win. 00:11:36.217 --> 00:11:37.077 Very clear win. 00:11:37.717 --> 00:11:38.517 Wow, Brent. 00:11:38.517 --> 00:11:41.737 I mean, do we know that Brent and PewDiePie aren't friends, or there's some 00:11:41.737 --> 00:11:42.617 sort of back-channeling? 00:11:42.977 --> 00:11:48.797 Not only was there that, But then there was a kind of a secondary effect of 00:11:48.797 --> 00:11:51.437 many other YouTubers making Linux content as well. 00:11:52.437 --> 00:11:57.277 Lots of reaction videos based on it, right? It was a whole hoopla there for a couple of weeks. 00:11:57.297 --> 00:11:58.077 In a way, you were not bullish enough. 00:12:00.137 --> 00:12:01.897 Okay. Congratulations, sir. 00:12:04.748 --> 00:12:11.528 So that's 1.5 points for Mr. Brentley, I believe. So not bad, Brent, not bad. 00:12:11.788 --> 00:12:14.528 Of a possible three points, is that it? So 50%. 00:12:14.528 --> 00:12:14.668 Yep. 00:12:15.068 --> 00:12:15.308 Yeah. 00:12:15.768 --> 00:12:16.248 I'll take it. 00:12:16.468 --> 00:12:20.148 Yeah, I mean, better than zero, as has been some of my years in the past. 00:12:20.948 --> 00:12:25.468 And that YouTuber one was great. All right, gentlemen, so it's my time to see how I did. 00:12:25.548 --> 00:12:25.948 You're up here. 00:12:26.308 --> 00:12:32.868 Mm-hmm, mm-hmm, mm-hmm. All right, so I said in 2025, this was my first prediction. 00:12:32.868 --> 00:12:34.208 And this was definitely going to happen. 00:12:34.208 --> 00:12:41.628 In 2025, inspired by NixOS, but not based on NixOS, a major distribution-based 00:12:41.628 --> 00:12:48.568 flavor, spin, or remix will ship a declarative configuration system for a reproducible system state. 00:12:48.768 --> 00:12:52.828 Now, there have been forks of NixOS, but I don't think that was my intention here. 00:12:53.908 --> 00:12:58.248 BlendOS is a thing, but I don't think that's probably a mainstream major distro. 00:12:58.768 --> 00:13:04.128 But I'm wondering what you guys think about OpenSUSE, because you have OpenSUSE, Aeon, and Kalpa. 00:13:05.493 --> 00:13:09.813 In 2025, they announced these two different variants, and they have doubled 00:13:09.813 --> 00:13:12.353 down on the zero-config declarative philosophy, they say. 00:13:12.773 --> 00:13:16.913 It's based on micro OS. It uses two specific tools to have declarative setups. 00:13:17.213 --> 00:13:20.593 You typically place these configuration files on a USB drive labeled ignition 00:13:20.593 --> 00:13:24.753 or combustion, and it does disk partitioning, rate arrays, creating users, 00:13:24.893 --> 00:13:26.973 writing files, system units, and software install. 00:13:27.253 --> 00:13:33.013 You do it with a human-readable butane YAML file, which is then compiled into 00:13:33.013 --> 00:13:35.033 a machine-readable ignition JSON file. 00:13:35.733 --> 00:13:39.973 And it can run any bash command, install any RPM package via whatever, 00:13:40.253 --> 00:13:42.913 transactional update, set up your networking, et cetera. 00:13:43.233 --> 00:13:47.393 So I think maybe you could argue that OpenSUSE is dabbling with this declarative setup. 00:13:47.573 --> 00:13:48.973 I have three questions. 00:13:49.133 --> 00:13:49.273 Okay. 00:13:49.293 --> 00:13:49.593 Three things. 00:13:49.833 --> 00:13:49.913 Fair. 00:13:50.233 --> 00:13:53.253 Well, I guess one of them is combined. So you made some notes here. 00:13:53.393 --> 00:13:59.293 The length of the notes combined with the fact that it's you talking about OpenSUSE 00:13:59.293 --> 00:14:02.073 makes it seem like a stretch automatically. 00:14:05.173 --> 00:14:08.873 my other question is like i don't think the ignition stuff is new i don't know 00:14:08.873 --> 00:14:13.253 about the butane so how much of this is a thing that was net new to 2025. 00:14:13.253 --> 00:14:18.233 Well the announcement of aeon and calpa was 2025. 00:14:18.233 --> 00:14:23.773 But was is the declarative or tech they're using well. 00:14:23.773 --> 00:14:28.753 No i don't think so But the distribution that uses the. 00:14:28.753 --> 00:14:29.573 Declarative tech was. 00:14:29.853 --> 00:14:35.733 Yeah. The wording is a major distribution-based flavor or spin or remix will 00:14:35.733 --> 00:14:38.053 ship a declarative configuration system. 00:14:38.253 --> 00:14:40.293 So it only had to ship in this year. 00:14:40.713 --> 00:14:42.173 Okay. Questions. 00:14:42.953 --> 00:14:43.773 All right. What do you think, though? 00:14:44.273 --> 00:14:45.833 Can I download this today? 00:14:46.493 --> 00:14:47.593 Yes, you can. 00:14:47.773 --> 00:14:52.633 Okay. Yeah. So ignition files are not a new thing at all. 00:14:53.213 --> 00:14:54.073 No. No. 00:14:54.073 --> 00:14:58.513 I mean, Cloud in it and the like are... 00:14:59.600 --> 00:15:04.420 Very old but this is this also gives you desktop zero config declarative desktop 00:15:04.420 --> 00:15:09.380 open source setup yeah it's like they're silver blue you could maybe kind of well. 00:15:09.380 --> 00:15:11.860 That's okay see that seems yeah 00:15:11.860 --> 00:15:14.520 i do think maybe you might have to install this on airmaster if you get. 00:15:14.520 --> 00:15:14.880 The point. 00:15:18.860 --> 00:15:26.680 All right so calpa and aon are brand new for 2025 using these ignition setups. 00:15:26.680 --> 00:15:30.540 And butane yeah yeah butane and ignition yeah sure. 00:15:30.540 --> 00:15:32.720 Well you can't have ignition without the fuel source. 00:15:32.720 --> 00:15:35.500 Right see you get it yeah see they're good at naming. 00:15:36.778 --> 00:15:37.638 I'm fine with it. 00:15:38.558 --> 00:15:40.338 Oh! Yes! 00:15:40.738 --> 00:15:40.918 Yeah. 00:15:41.138 --> 00:15:43.978 One point. All right, one point for me. That was a hard point I had to earn, 00:15:44.058 --> 00:15:46.398 but I'm going to take it. I had to work for that one. Yeah. 00:15:46.538 --> 00:15:47.838 Do you feel good about what you've done? 00:15:48.038 --> 00:15:52.158 I mean, I was hoping to see more. I really was. I was hoping to see more. 00:15:52.258 --> 00:15:55.398 And when CacheOS Server Edition came out, I was hoping that would be something like that. 00:15:55.398 --> 00:16:01.218 And this one was a hard one for me to say yes to, because an admission file 00:16:01.218 --> 00:16:03.738 is not really the same thing as a Nix config. 00:16:04.138 --> 00:16:06.158 It's just not. But... 00:16:06.158 --> 00:16:06.418 No. 00:16:06.418 --> 00:16:08.998 But it's arguably declarative, right? 00:16:09.498 --> 00:16:11.178 Technically, it is a declarative config. 00:16:11.538 --> 00:16:12.278 It is, right? 00:16:12.538 --> 00:16:12.778 Yeah. 00:16:13.838 --> 00:16:16.238 You can install your software, your networking, get it all set up. 00:16:17.718 --> 00:16:18.918 Begrudgingly, you get the point. 00:16:19.198 --> 00:16:24.338 I think this next one's not going to be super easy either. Here is my second prediction for 2025. 00:16:25.078 --> 00:16:32.058 In 2025, Debian 13 Trixie will ship, and every desktop that is capable of supporting 00:16:32.058 --> 00:16:36.058 Wayland will have Wayland support turned on by default. 00:16:36.418 --> 00:16:41.658 See, this is going to be a nuanced thing because there are desktops that are technically... 00:16:41.658 --> 00:16:43.718 How many desktops does Devin even ship? 00:16:43.938 --> 00:16:44.998 Well, I pulled the top four. 00:16:45.098 --> 00:16:45.358 Okay. 00:16:45.918 --> 00:16:48.958 I pulled the top four, and once you know it, it's right down the middle. 00:16:49.298 --> 00:16:52.558 So, GNOME 48 is shipping with Waylon by default in Trixie. 00:16:52.678 --> 00:16:56.358 So is Plasma 6.3. Those are both shipping with Waylon by default. 00:16:56.358 --> 00:17:05.338 However, LXQ 2.1 is using X11 by default and does technically support Wayland 00:17:05.338 --> 00:17:11.298 via LabW or LibAWBWC something, but is experimental. 00:17:11.758 --> 00:17:19.038 And XFCE 4.20 also ships with X11 by default, but the team considers it experimental 00:17:19.038 --> 00:17:23.438 and should not be used for regular users and should only be used for testing only. 00:17:23.438 --> 00:17:29.018 so it's literally split down the middle where the two that are on X11 could 00:17:29.018 --> 00:17:33.938 technically support it but are not yet recommended by the projects to run it. 00:17:33.938 --> 00:17:35.138 What does capable mean. 00:17:37.253 --> 00:17:37.853 Hard fail. 00:17:38.273 --> 00:17:44.633 I really, if I just would have left, I could have just kept it a little more vague, you know? 00:17:44.733 --> 00:17:45.653 There is an art to that. 00:17:46.033 --> 00:17:46.233 Yeah. 00:17:46.333 --> 00:17:46.473 Yeah. 00:17:46.693 --> 00:17:48.933 No, that's a hard fail. Sorry. 00:17:49.093 --> 00:17:49.873 All right. Okay. 00:17:50.533 --> 00:17:51.393 I was hoping. 00:17:52.833 --> 00:17:56.573 I blame XFCE and LXQT. 00:17:57.113 --> 00:17:58.893 Experimental means technically capable. 00:17:59.353 --> 00:17:59.753 Okay. 00:18:00.153 --> 00:18:02.753 Turned off by default means you fail. 00:18:03.693 --> 00:18:07.073 It is technically, if I hadn't said technically, I think that would have been a winner. 00:18:08.302 --> 00:18:12.582 Okay, well, I feel a little better about this next one, although at the time 00:18:12.582 --> 00:18:15.342 I was like, hmm, this is going to be a winner, a slam dunk. 00:18:15.442 --> 00:18:19.222 It actually was a nail-biter almost up until the end. 00:18:19.522 --> 00:18:23.802 In 2025, Valve will release Proton 10.0. 00:18:23.942 --> 00:18:27.582 They will tout brand new types of compatibility with Windows games, 00:18:27.602 --> 00:18:31.062 and it will be released before the end of 2025. 00:18:31.062 --> 00:18:34.682 I expected it to actually become much earlier in the year, 00:18:35.042 --> 00:18:42.162 but Proton 10.0 beta was released in April, but Stable did not actually ship 00:18:42.162 --> 00:18:48.042 until November 13th of 2025, and a major update just went out to 10.0, 00:18:48.162 --> 00:18:50.762 version 10.0-4 in late December. 00:18:50.762 --> 00:18:55.062 So this one, I actually just got in under the line when I thought I was getting a slam dunk. 00:18:55.242 --> 00:18:58.442 But, I mean, that one's cut and dry, easily measurable. 00:18:58.922 --> 00:19:02.822 The stable version of Proton 10 shipped on November 13th. What do you think, 00:19:02.882 --> 00:19:03.642 Ref? It's a winner, right? 00:19:04.642 --> 00:19:07.002 What types of new compatibility are there? 00:19:07.702 --> 00:19:12.922 Ah, so many games that previously required Proton Experimental were now moved to the stable branch, 00:19:13.062 --> 00:19:16.442 and they addressed issues with certain games, like Assassin's Creed Shadows, 00:19:16.442 --> 00:19:21.722 that had video playback issues, And another game that had issues that didn't 00:19:21.722 --> 00:19:25.102 work before was Resident Evil Village, which began working with Proton 10. 00:19:25.182 --> 00:19:27.942 There's other games, obviously, but those are the ones that stuck out. 00:19:28.662 --> 00:19:29.682 Okay. Yeah. 00:19:29.822 --> 00:19:30.722 Good. Good to go. 00:19:31.022 --> 00:19:32.962 Yeah. You've taken the lead. 00:19:33.402 --> 00:19:33.642 Dang. 00:19:33.642 --> 00:19:35.022 That brings you up to a two. 00:19:35.582 --> 00:19:39.502 I have two points, Wes Payne. Let's see if you can beat a 2.0. 00:19:40.202 --> 00:19:41.522 I certainly can't. 00:19:41.662 --> 00:19:46.422 I love, well, what I love about you, Wes's predictions, he often shoots for 00:19:46.422 --> 00:19:47.642 the stars and makes it fun. 00:19:48.202 --> 00:19:52.282 So let's see what Wes said would happen in 2025, his first prediction. 00:19:52.562 --> 00:19:59.622 I predict that in 2025, Chris Fisher purchases a RISC-V device that is a RISC-V 00:19:59.622 --> 00:20:02.702 device that has a RISC-V processor as its primary CBU. 00:20:03.490 --> 00:20:04.090 Uh-oh. 00:20:04.270 --> 00:20:05.530 Yeah, you really failed me on this one. 00:20:05.710 --> 00:20:07.850 There's still time. There's still time. 00:20:08.130 --> 00:20:11.330 That is true, but nothing's in my shopping cart, Wes. 00:20:11.950 --> 00:20:13.630 Well, why not? What are you waiting for? 00:20:14.210 --> 00:20:16.270 What do you think, Rev? I think that's a fail right there. 00:20:16.270 --> 00:20:19.790 I'd like to ask here, what was your motivation, Wes? What was your thinking on this one? 00:20:20.110 --> 00:20:24.110 He buys a lot of gadgets for himself, and there's just been a lot of chat about RISC-V. 00:20:24.370 --> 00:20:26.550 Ah, you see, I didn't buy many gadgets this year. 00:20:26.650 --> 00:20:28.750 Yeah. I blame inflation. 00:20:28.970 --> 00:20:29.190 Yeah. 00:20:30.390 --> 00:20:34.130 I was hoping you were right. I think we were feeling like it was going to be 00:20:34.130 --> 00:20:36.990 a big year and it was but just not in a way that impacted and like. 00:20:36.990 --> 00:20:40.930 I could have seen like you know was there like some kind of little tiny like 00:20:40.930 --> 00:20:44.030 old school phony size gadget or terminal or. 00:20:44.030 --> 00:20:44.690 Little development. 00:20:44.690 --> 00:20:45.970 Board that could I don't know. 00:20:45.970 --> 00:20:50.590 Or like a little laptop thingy sort of thing but I think that's a fail ref that. 00:20:50.590 --> 00:20:56.510 Little emulation thing that you bought from like Alibaba or whatever that that doesn't run risk 5. 00:20:56.510 --> 00:20:59.850 It does not then nope sorry, 00:21:02.121 --> 00:21:03.181 All right, zero points. 00:21:03.401 --> 00:21:04.181 Risky prediction. 00:21:04.381 --> 00:21:06.781 Fun prediction. That's one I wish would have happened. 00:21:06.961 --> 00:21:08.261 Maybe you'll get it in this year. 00:21:08.441 --> 00:21:11.201 You never know. Could be the year of RISC-V. You never know. 00:21:11.661 --> 00:21:15.041 All right, Wes's next prediction for 2025. 00:21:15.641 --> 00:21:21.361 I predict that in 2025, a distribution or spin or addition will feature BcacheFS 00:21:21.361 --> 00:21:26.301 as default file system, by which I mean you can go to the website, download an ISO, 00:21:27.181 --> 00:21:29.901 click through the defaults of the installer without having to change anything, 00:21:29.901 --> 00:21:33.001 and you will get BcacheFS as your main file system. 00:21:33.481 --> 00:21:34.141 What do you think. 00:21:34.301 --> 00:21:37.841 Wes? You know. Sadly, this is one I was hoping for, too. 00:21:38.101 --> 00:21:43.821 Yeah. In a way, I think that's gone the opposite direction. I think it's a good setup for 2026. 00:21:44.821 --> 00:21:47.961 True, yeah. We're getting to a point of, I mean, the experimental label might 00:21:47.961 --> 00:21:51.721 actually be off here real soon, too, so that's probably a reasonable precursor 00:21:51.721 --> 00:21:55.241 before it's likely, at least. But I was being hopeful. 00:21:55.721 --> 00:21:59.381 What do you think, Rav? It was hopeful, but seemingly misses the mark? 00:21:59.381 --> 00:22:02.901 It missed the mark. Yeah. Sorry. That's a no go. 00:22:05.336 --> 00:22:11.396 All right. Well, let's see. He may have made up for it with his last prediction for 2025. 00:22:12.376 --> 00:22:16.156 Wes Payne said this was absolutely going to happen in 2025. 00:22:16.576 --> 00:22:21.556 I predict that at the end of 2025, all three of us, Chris, Wes, 00:22:21.736 --> 00:22:27.616 and Brent, are using NixOS stock, you know, regular NixOS, not a derivative, 00:22:27.916 --> 00:22:30.796 as our primary workstation desktop operating system. 00:22:30.796 --> 00:22:35.196 All right, we got a little nuance here. Because this is technically true, 00:22:35.196 --> 00:22:38.076 but technically not, because I'm running Hypervibe on my systems. 00:22:38.236 --> 00:22:39.536 I think Hypervibe counts. 00:22:39.616 --> 00:22:39.936 I think so. 00:22:39.996 --> 00:22:41.656 Because you're just using Nix packages. 00:22:41.876 --> 00:22:42.696 Right, right. 00:22:42.836 --> 00:22:49.076 When you install Hypervibe, do you install Nix and then switch it into Hypervibe? 00:22:49.396 --> 00:22:54.936 Yes, technically I do right now. So is that the moment it switches? I like this line. 00:22:55.276 --> 00:23:00.376 So yes, I am installing mainline Nix, and then I destroy it. 00:23:00.796 --> 00:23:04.956 And there's nothing that you couldn't get with what you have from just a Nix 00:23:04.956 --> 00:23:08.396 file. As long as you could just do that and get what you have. 00:23:08.496 --> 00:23:12.516 Yep. What about you, Brantley? NixOS is your main daily driver? 00:23:13.076 --> 00:23:19.056 Well, I kind of feel like it was my daily driver before the predictions episode from last year. 00:23:19.236 --> 00:23:21.836 So I haven't changed it, I don't think, at all this year. 00:23:22.136 --> 00:23:24.196 So I'm NixOS all the way. 00:23:24.396 --> 00:23:27.056 It is a possibility. It could happen. 00:23:27.736 --> 00:23:30.336 Yeah, we try a lot of distros over the years, so you never know. 00:23:30.336 --> 00:23:32.936 So there's a lot of trying, but I always seem to come back. 00:23:33.356 --> 00:23:36.716 Okay, so what do you think, ref? Can we excuse the hyper-vibe technicality and 00:23:36.716 --> 00:23:37.856 consider this one a winner? 00:23:37.976 --> 00:23:40.176 It's not even a technicality. He just gets it. 00:23:40.636 --> 00:23:41.696 Hey! All right. 00:23:41.836 --> 00:23:42.456 No shout-out. 00:23:43.716 --> 00:23:46.116 That does put him in last place, but I mean. 00:23:46.256 --> 00:23:49.196 That does. One point for Wes Payne. All right. 00:23:49.316 --> 00:23:54.036 So as far as last year's predictions go, Brantley comes in at a 1.5. 00:23:54.196 --> 00:23:55.396 Well done, Brantley. Very nice. 00:23:55.396 --> 00:23:56.276 That half point. 00:23:57.756 --> 00:23:59.476 I didn't even fight for it. 00:24:00.396 --> 00:24:03.736 I come in at a victorious two points. 00:24:03.996 --> 00:24:04.556 Ha ha ha. 00:24:06.245 --> 00:24:11.665 And Wes Payne ranked in at one solid point, which honestly. 00:24:11.885 --> 00:24:13.225 Big beefy point. That's what I say. 00:24:13.405 --> 00:24:16.545 Hey, that one point's doing a heavy lift. That means none of us got a zero. 00:24:17.085 --> 00:24:20.285 That's not too bad for forecasting the future. Really, if you think about it, 00:24:20.565 --> 00:24:21.545